Sources

01The public retreat

Federal and state investment in agricultural research, and what it returns.

    United States public agricultural research and development peaked at $7.64 billion in 2002 and had fallen to $5.16 billion by 2019, about a third lower in real terms.

    Figures in constant 2019 dollars, covering USDA laboratories, land grant universities and cooperating institutions. Public R&D investment is the primary driver of long term agricultural productivity growth.

    USDA Economic Research Service

    The annual series behind that decline runs from $5.47 billion in 1970 to a peak of $8.11 billion in 2002 and $5.75 billion in 2021, in constant 2022 dollars.

    Public agricultural and food research and development expenditures, covering USDA intramural agencies and State universities and cooperating institutions, deflated by the research and development price index. The chart on the manifesto page plots this series.

    USDA Economic Research Service

    China overtook the United States as the largest public funder of agricultural research in 2011 and by 2015 was spending roughly twice as much.

    China was spending more than $10 billion a year on agricultural research and development by 2015, close to five times its own spending in 2000.

    USDA Economic Research Service

    Public agricultural research has returned about $20 to the United States economy for every $1 spent since 1900.

    More than four out of five estimated rates of return fall between 20 and 60 percent, with a median estimate of 45 percent. Benefits reach the farm sector, the food industry and consumers.

    USDA Economic Research Service
02The private retreat

Private capital flows into agricultural technology, and the sector composition behind the headline totals.

    Global agrifoodtech funding reached $16.2 billion in 2025, down 3 percent year over year.

    Upstream companies, meaning those building technology for farms and food production, drew about $9 billion, up 7 percent, while deal count fell 12 percent. Deep technology has risen to 32 percent of agrifoodtech deals from 22 percent a decade ago.

    AgFunder Global AgriFoodTech Investment Report 2026

    Artificial intelligence companies took 65.4 percent of all United States venture capital deal value in 2025.

    United States venture firms closed 15,352 deals worth $320 billion over the year, the second highest annual deal value on record. Artificial intelligence's share of that value has risen from about 10 percent a decade earlier.

    PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q4 2025

    Agricultural technology investment grew roughly 20 times between 2012 and 2021, against about 11 times for venture capital overall, then fell by roughly 30 percent.

    Figure compiled from sector investment reporting covering the decade to 2021, the peak year for agrifoodtech funding, and the decline in the years since as capital moved toward sectors with shorter return cycles.

    Sector investment reporting, 2012 to 2021

03The bill

What withdrawn investment looks like once it reaches the national accounts.

    The United States ran an agricultural trade surplus for nearly sixty years until 2019. It now runs a deficit, which reached a record $43.7 billion in fiscal 2025.

    USDA forecasts the deficit narrowing to $29.0 billion in fiscal 2026. That improvement comes from imports contracting by more than $16 billion rather than from export growth, and exports remain below their fiscal 2024 level.

    USDA Economic Research Service and American Farm Bureau Federation

    The average age of a United States farm producer is 58.1 years, and has risen in every census since 2002.

    There are four times as many producers aged 65 and over as there are under 35. Producers younger than 45 represented 22 percent of the total in 2022, up from 20 percent in 2017.

    USDA Census of Agriculture, 2022

    The Department of Labor certified approximately 363,000 H-2A seasonal farm worker positions in fiscal year 2024.

    Foreign born workers represent roughly two thirds of the hired farm labor force, with undocumented workers accounting for around 40 percent of hired crop laborers.

    U.S. Department of Labor and Congressional Research Service
04Adoption and translation

How much agricultural technology is actually in use, and how little research reaches a field.

    Only 27 percent of United States farms or ranches used precision agriculture practices to manage crops or livestock.

    Based on 2023 USDA reporting. Adoption rises sharply with operation size across every technology category measured.

    USDA Economic Research Service

    Guidance autosteering was used by 70 percent of large scale crop farms and 52 percent of midsize farms, while variable rate technology reached 45 percent of large farms and only 5 percent of small family farms.

    Small family farms are defined as those with gross cash farm income below $350,000. Machine vision weed detection and autonomous grain carts remain in the single digits of adoption at every farm size.

    USDA Economic Research Service and U.S. Government Accountability Office

    One research pipeline study followed 560 genetic traits and found five that were eventually commercialized for farmers.

    Cited in analysis of technology diffusion in agriculture, alongside findings that thin margins, low risk tolerance and a lack of commercial testbeds are the primary barriers to moving results onto working farms.

    World Intellectual Property Report 2026
05Productivity

What the withdrawn investment has done to output, and how long the delay runs.

    United States agricultural total factor productivity growth fell from 2.09 percent a year in the 1980s to 0.28 percent between 2014 and 2023, a historical minimum.

    On the harmonised international basis used for country comparison, United States growth averaged about negative 0.05 percent over the past decade while China averaged 1.9 percent, backed by roughly twice the research funding. Global productivity growth averaged 0.76 percent against a target near 2 percent.

    2025 Global Agricultural Productivity Report, Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences

    The largest effects of public agricultural research on productivity appear up to thirty years after the money is spent.

    United States public research funding growth began to slow in the early 1980s and plateaued around 2000, so the productivity slowdown of the 2010s reflects diminishing returns on a knowledge stock built decades earlier rather than any failure of current science.

    2025 Global Agricultural Productivity Report, citing Ortiz-Bobea et al. and Pardey and Alston

    United States agricultural productivity grew fastest during the 1980s farm crisis, when capital was least available.

    Real interest rates near 16 percent contracted input use and forced operators to work existing technology harder. The credit driven 1970s and the low interest 2010s both encouraged input intensification and slowed productivity growth.

    2025 Global Agricultural Productivity Report

    Adoption of variable rate application and soil mapping remains below 25 percent of planned acreage for winter wheat, cotton, sorghum and rice.

    The report describes the distance between a working innovation and on-farm practice as a valley of death, and identifies knowledge transfer, extension and adoption support as what closes it.

    2025 Global Agricultural Productivity Report, citing McFadden et al.
06Capital geography

Where private investment concentrates, and how little of it reaches the places where agriculture happens.

    The San Francisco Bay Area took 41.3 percent of all United States startup capital raised in 2025.

    More than the next seven largest venture markets combined. New York took 14 percent, Los Angeles 8.3 percent and Boston 6.6 percent over the same year.

    Carta, Top Startup Ecosystems 2025

    Ten micropolitan areas accounted for 57 percent of the $851 million in average annual private capital reaching micropolitan America between 2021 and 2023.

    Of 178 micropolitan areas that raised capital through Regulation D across the period, concentration within rural America mirrors the national pattern.

    Center on Rural Innovation

    Five metropolitan areas captured more than 90 percent of the nation's innovation sector growth between 2005 and 2017, while the bottom 90 percent of metros lost share.

    The authors' proposed remedy is to concentrate federal innovation inputs in a small number of places that already hold research capacity, a science and engineering talent base, and room to grow.

    Atkinson, Muro and Whiton, The Case for Growth Centers, Brookings Metro and ITIF
07Southwest Virginia

The scale of agriculture in the Commonwealth, the profile of the county named on the page, and the companies working there.

    Agriculture is Virginia's largest private industry, with an economic impact of $82.3 billion a year and more than 381,800 jobs.

    Value added impact is reported at $43.8 billion. Counted together with forestry, the combined industries produce roughly $105 billion in annual impact and more than 490,000 jobs.

    Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services

    Pulaski County, Virginia has an estimated population of 33,523 and a median household income of $62,028.

    Population is a 2026 estimate. Median household income is the 2024 figure, up from $60,767 the prior year. Manufacturing remains the county's largest employment sector. It is cited here as one example of a rural county holding land, producers and an industrial workforce.

    U.S. Census Bureau and Data USA

    Pulaski County is within a day's drive of half the United States population, with access to Interstates 81 and 77.

    Regional partnership figure, calculated on standard truck drive time radii. Roanoke County, an hour east on the same corridor, states two thirds on the same basis.

    Virginia's New River Valley

    Virginia Tech ranked 56th among all United States institutions for total research expenditures, and 4th nationally in industrial and manufacturing engineering.

    National Science Foundation Higher Education Research and Development survey, released December 2025 for activity from July 2023 through June 2024. The university also ranked 6th in natural resources and conservation, 13th in engineering and 13th in computer and information sciences, and 37th among public institutions for total research expenditures.

    National Science Foundation HERD survey, via Virginia Tech

    Virginia Tech is ranked 15th in the country for agricultural sciences.

    Niche 2027 Best Colleges for Agricultural Sciences in America. A separate measure from research expenditures: on the National Science Foundation survey the university ranks 6th nationally in natural resources and conservation.

    Niche

    The regional additive manufacturing and advanced materials consortium won a strategy development grant in the first phase of the federal regional technology hubs program, for a strategy based in the New River Valley.

    Selected from 181 applications. The work covers Floyd, Giles, Montgomery and Pulaski counties, Radford and Danville, and is led by the New River Valley Regional Commission. A strategy development grant carries planning money rather than deployment money. GO Virginia added $4.2 million to the same effort in April 2026.

    U.S. Economic Development Administration and GO Virginia

    RoVa Labs, a $26 million shared biotechnology incubator with 40,000 square feet of wet laboratory space, opened in Roanoke in May 2026.

    Built by Carilion Clinic and the City of Roanoke with Virginia Tech and Virginia Western Community College, at 1030 South Jefferson Street. It offers private and open wet lab space, shared equipment and offices, and is expected to create 250 jobs within five years. Agriculture has no equivalent facility in the region.

    Carilion Clinic and the Roanoke Regional Partnership

    The Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at Virginia Tech Carilion holds more than 260,000 square feet of research space in Roanoke and is in the middle of a $90 million expansion.

    The institute employs more than 400 faculty, staff and students across 37 faculty-led research teams. The expansion adds 139,000 square feet and is intended to double the workforce by 2027. Roanoke is about forty minutes from the New River Valley on Interstate 81.

    Virginia Tech

    Virginia Tech runs Kentland Farm, roughly 1,800 acres on the New River in Montgomery County, as part of a 3,200 acre college farm operation.

    The farm supports research, teaching and extension programs across Virginia's major crop and livestock species, and is one of the agricultural experiment station facilities the university operates across the Commonwealth.

    Virginia Agricultural Experiment Station, Virginia Tech

    MOVA's panel bed filtration system completed proof of concept testing for carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitric oxide capture with Virginia Tech.

    Testing ran through the Advanced Propulsion and Power Laboratory in the College of Engineering, with sorbent work from the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. The company was founded in Pulaski by Steve Critchfield, who had built and sold the telecommunications business Tele-Works Inc., and is led by chief executive John Schott. MOVA reports running research and development inside the Jefferson School building in Pulaski.

    Virginia Tech News and MOVA Technologies

    Vegg Inc. converts decommissioned public school buildings into leasable controlled environment growing space, beginning with Jefferson Elementary School, a historic 30,000 to 40,000 square foot former school in Pulaski that had been abandoned.

    Federal and state historic tax credits reduce the real estate cost passed through to tenants, who lease growing space rather than build a facility. In April 2024 the site harvested its first lettuce crop, grown on carbon dioxide captured by MOVA rather than the bottled CO2 that indoor farms buy from natural gas processing. Cardinal News reported in June 2025 that Luke Allison is founder and chief development officer, Cody Journell co-founder and board president, and Toni Sperry chief science officer; an earlier company overview listed Journell as chief executive.

    Cardinal News, WVTF and iGrow News

    Pod Farms builds patented vertical hydroponic systems and was founded in 2017 by chief executive Toni Sperry.

    The company's vertical channel system adapts nutrient film technique, the most widely adopted commercial hydroponic method, to a vertical arrangement. Pilot installations run at a smart agriculture site in Wilson, North Carolina and at an aquaponics facility in Warsaw, Virginia that supplies a regional food bank. Pod Farms was selected for the Regional Acceleration and Mentoring Program's spring 2025 cohort. The company reports running research and development inside the Jefferson School building in Pulaski.

    Pod Farms and RAMP
08The global position

What other governments committed to agricultural research while United States funding fell.

    China raised public agricultural research spending roughly fivefold in the two decades after 2000, and across 2019 to 2021 spent more than the United States, India and Brazil combined.

    China, the European Union and the United States are the three largest public funders of agricultural research. United States public expenditure was about a third lower in real terms in 2019 than at its 2002 peak.

    USDA Economic Research Service

    United States public agricultural research spending peaked at about 3.5 percent of agricultural GDP in the mid 2000s and had fallen to roughly 2 percent by 2013, below the average for high income countries.

    Research intensity, meaning public agricultural research spending as a share of agricultural GDP, is the standard comparison because absolute spending flatters large economies. Leading regions including northwest Europe and high income Asia sit near 4.5 percent, and their ratio has risen steadily since the early 1980s.

    USDA Economic Research Service and ASTI

    Commodity support, crop insurance and conservation renew automatically at roughly $39 billion a year, while agricultural research must be appropriated annually at about $3.5 billion.

    The Congressional Budget Office February 2026 baseline projects $1.374 trillion in mandatory farm bill outlays across fiscal 2027 to 2036, of which nutrition programs are about 71.7 percent and the remaining farm titles roughly $392 billion. Agricultural research sits outside that mandatory baseline and depends on discretionary appropriations.

    Congressional Budget Office and Congressional Research Service

    Federal agricultural research spending works out to about $1,842 per farm per year.

    Calculated from roughly $3.5 billion in combined appropriations for the two USDA research agencies against the 1,900,487 farms counted in the 2022 Census of Agriculture. The number of American farms fell below two million that year for the first time since before the Civil War, down 7 percent from 2017, with average farm size rising to 463 acres.

    USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2022 Census of Agriculture

    The United States Department of Agriculture is estimated to spend about $234 billion in fiscal 2026, of which roughly $3.5 billion goes to its two research agencies.

    Senate appropriations held the National Institute of Food and Agriculture at $1.7 billion and the Agricultural Research Service at $1.8 billion. That is about 1.5 percent of the department's total outlays.

    USDA Budget Summary and Senate Committee on Appropriations

    United States agricultural total factor productivity fell between 2009 and 2019, while China, India and Brazil all rose.

    Productivity growth tracks research investment on a lag of roughly a decade, which is why spending decisions taken in the early 2000s are visible in output now.

    USDA Economic Research Service, International Agricultural Productivity

    The European Union committed an indicative 1.25 billion euros to food, bioeconomy, agriculture and environment research for 2026 and 2027.

    Horizon Europe Cluster 6 work program, adopted 11 December 2025, with roughly 691 million euros in calls closing during 2026. Horizon Europe overall runs to 95.5 billion euros.

    European Research Executive Agency

    Canada funds a standing national agrifood innovation cluster, one of five, with a second round of 150 million Canadian dollars in program money.

    A further 15 million Canadian dollars was added in May 2025 for genomics and artificial intelligence programs. The cluster targets a 25 billion dollar industry employing more than 17,000 people by 2035.

    Protein Industries Canada and Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada

    Wageningen University and Research anchors a cluster holding more than 1,500 food and agricultural technology companies within a twenty kilometer radius.

    The Netherlands is among the largest agricultural exporters in the world despite its size, on a model of concentrated public research investment sustained across decades.

    OECD, Innovation, Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability in the Netherlands
09The delivery gap

The distance between what federal regional investment was asked to be, what it was authorized at, and what was paid.

    A 2019 Brookings and ITIF report proposed up to $700 million a year per metropolitan area for ten years, across eight to ten places, at a total cost of roughly $100 billion.

    The same report found that five metropolitan areas took more than 90 percent of innovation sector growth between 2005 and 2017, and that a third of the country's innovation jobs sit in sixteen counties. Its 35 candidate growth centers spanned 19 states.

    Brookings Metro, Bass Center and ITIF, The Case for Growth Centers

    The CHIPS and Science Act authorized $10 billion in August 2022 for twenty regional technology hubs.

    The hubs were not required to be connected to semiconductor manufacturing. Thirty one were designated in October 2023 out of roughly 400 applications, and designation carried no money.

    U.S. Economic Development Administration

    Through fiscal 2026 the program received a little over $800 million in appropriations against that $10 billion authorization.

    The fiscal 2026 appropriation was $41 million. A further $200 million came from the proceeds of a June 2026 spectrum auction rather than from an appropriations bill.

    U.S. Economic Development Administration

    On 20 July 2026 the Commerce Department announced its intent to invest $169 million across six of the thirty one designated hubs.

    The award followed the rescission of more than $200 million in earlier awards and a rerun competition. Only two regions that won the first round won again.

    U.S. Economic Development Administration

    The fiscal 2026 budget proposed cutting the National Institute of Food and Agriculture by about $602 million and the Agricultural Research Service by $159 million. Senate appropriators rejected both.

    The Senate mark held NIFA at $1.7 billion and ARS at $1.8 billion. NIFA had stopped accepting competitive grant applications on 23 January 2025 while its programs were under review.

    Science, AAAS
10Precedent

The Research Triangle as the closest documented analogue to a deliberately concentrated regional research cluster.

    Research Triangle Park produces $25.1 billion in annual economic impact, equal to 4.1 percent of North Carolina's gross domestic product.

    Nearly 400 companies and more than 55,000 employees across 7,000 acres, on land that was pine forest when the park was founded in 1959. The park anchors commitments including Biogen's $2 billion investment and Novartis Gene Therapies' $771 million expansion with 700 jobs.

    Research Triangle Park Foundation

    North Carolina ranked 47th of 48 states in per capita income in the 1950s.

    The state economy ran on tobacco, textiles and furniture, and university graduates left the state to find work. The park was built between three existing research universities. The Raleigh and Durham region has since grown past 2.2 million residents.

    North Carolina History Project

Image credits

Photography is used under a public domain dedication or a license permitting reuse. Niels Woldberg. CC0 public domain dedication, via Wikimedia Commons. Ridges near Asheville with cloud filling the valleys. CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Kenneth Novy. Virginia Tech's research farm on the New River, Montgomery County, Virginia. CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Aerial view of the Markgräflerland. Taxiarchos228. CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons. U.S. Department of Agriculture, photographed in Alexandria, Virginia. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. Fred Miller for the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Freestocks.org. CC0 public domain dedication, via StockSnap.

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12Method and disclosure

This site is published by a private interest group working on agricultural technology in Virginia. It is an advocacy site. It argues that both public and private investment should move back toward agriculture and agricultural technology, and that regions holding land, producers and research capacity are where that investment does the most work. Readers should weigh the figures on this page against that stated position.

Nothing here is presented as neutral analysis and no claim of independence is made. Where a figure comes from a federal statistical agency it is labeled as such. Where a figure comes from private investment reporting, the publisher is named. Numbers that appear in more than one place are cited to the earliest primary source available.

Corrections are welcome. If a figure on this site is out of date or wrong, it will be changed.